The Draft Strategies series of articles comes to a close today with a compilation of all of our research into the official Franchise Fantasy Sports Power Rankings. To develop these rankings, we looked at the following data:

1. Aggregate team power rankings from our analysis of what the “experts” said (Part I)
2. Individual fantasy football rankings compiled into team scores (Part III)
3. Strength of conference weighting (Part IV)

The aggregate team power rankings and individual player rankings assigned each team a score, from 1-32, with the lower score always being better. We weighted the results by strength of conference with AFC teams being penalized 1 point (+1) and NFC teams being credited 1 point (-1). The results created our Power Rankings, from the best to worst NFL teams.

1. Indianapolis
2. Dallas
3. Minnesota
4. New Orleans
5. Green Bay
6. San Diego
7. Baltimore
8. Philadelphia
9. Houston
10. N.Y. Gians
11. N.Y. Jets
12. New England
13. Atlanta
14. Pittsburgh
15. Cincinnati
16. Arizona
17. San Francisco
18. Chicago
19. Miami
20. Washington
21. Carolina
22. Tennessee
23. Kansas City
24. Detroit
25. Denver
26. Oakland
27. Jacksonville
28. Seattle
29. Buffalo
30. Tampa Bay
31. Cleveland
32. St. Louis

In analyzing the odds to win each conference and the trends from mid February to late July we see that the AFC has stayed fairly flat (8 trending up, 7 trending down, and one stayed the same).  This is in sharp contrast to what we are seeing in the NFC, which is mightily trending up as a whole (12 trending up and 4 trending down).  See the detail below:

Odds to win the NFC

• New Orleans: 7-2 current / 5-1 trending down
• Dallas: 4-1 current / 3-1 trending up
• Minnesota: 9-2 current / 5-2 trending up
• Green Bay: 5-1 current / 4-1 trending up
• New York: 7-1 current / 10-1 trending down
• Philadelphia: 8-1 current / 14-1 trending down
• Atlanta: 11-1 current / 10-1 trending up
• Chicago: 14-1 current / 6-1 trending up
• Arizona: 15-1 current / 20-1 trending down
• San Francisco: 20-1 current / 11-1 trending up
• Carolina: 22-1 current / 20-1 trending up
• Washington: 25-1 current / 9-1 trending up
• Seattle: 30-1 current / 25-1 trending up
• Tampa Bay: 50-1 current / 40-1 trending up
• St. Louis: 60-1 current / 55-1 trending up
• Detroit: 100-1 current / 50-1 trending up

Odds to win the AFC

• Indianapolis: 2-1 current / 3-1 trending down
• New England: 4-1 current / 5-1 trending down
• San Diego: 4-1 current / 5-1 trending down
• Pittsburgh: 5-1 current / 6-1 trending down
• New York: 8-1 current / 5-2 trending up
• Baltimore: 9-1 current / 7-2 trending up
• Tennessee: 10-1 current / 15-1 trending down
• Cincinnati: 12-1 current / 13-1 trending down
• Houston: 15-1 current / 10-1 trending up
• Miami: 17-1 current / 10-1 trending up
• Denver: 20-1 current / 15-1 trending up
• Jacksonville: 22-1 current / 45-1 trending down
• Buffalo: 40-1 current / 40-1 no trend
• Cleveland: 50-1 current / 45-1 trending up
• Kansas City: 60-1 current / 40-1 trending up
• Oakland: 75-1 current / 35-1 trending up

What all this tells me is that the gambling community is giving the NFC teams a bit more love than the AFC.  This all ties back to your draft strategy in franchise fantasy football.  If the trends we see above actually come to fruition then by definition the NFC is a considerably stronger conference than the AFC.  People seem to think 75% of the NFC teams have gotten stronger this off season while only 50% of the AFC teams have improved.  This is notable because the NFC won the Super Bowl last year and most of the teams have apparently gotten even better (and ironically the champion Saints were one of only 4 teams whose stock declined in the NFC).

In franchise fantasy football you live and die by the wins generated by the teams you own.  Franchise owners instinctively gravitate toward teams that people are talking about as trending up.  If you are doing your research you’ll see that the NFC is breeding more of these than the AFC.

“The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.” – Aristotle

Nothing like quoting Greek philosophers to kick-off a blog post about fantasy football draft strategies! But it’s very appropriate, as Part III of our draft strategy analyzes the use of individual fantasy football power rankings to predict which teams will rack up the most wins.

To develop this draft strategy, we looked at the NFL’s fantasy football top 200 rankings. According to the NFL’s rankings, Chris Johnson of the Tennessee Titans is the most valuable fantasy football point earner while Jaguar wide receiver Mike Thomas is at the bottom of the list.

To determine the strongest teams based on individual performance, we developed a point system that awards the most valued player (Chris Johnson) 200 points, and then all subsequent players one less point (Mike Thomas is worth one point). Next, we sorted the data by team and ranked the strength of NFL teams based on their individual player’s fantasy football value. Here are the results (team – point value):

Indianapolis - 1018
Dallas - 979
Minnesota - 883
Green Bay - 881
New Orleans - 879
San Diego - 847
Houston - 834
Philadelphia - 813
N.Y. Giants - 781
Chicago - 759
N.Y. Jets - 755
Baltimore - 724
Pittsburgh - 679
San Francisco - 663
New England - 654
Atlanta - 625
Arizona - 609
Kansas City - 603
Cincinnati - 575
Miami - 554
Detroit - 536
Washington - 529
Carolina - 528
Oakland - 453
Tennessee - 450
Buffalo - 430
Denver - 429
Jacksonville - 389
Tampa Bay - 351
Seattle - 334
Cleveland - 324
St. Louis – 232

Similar to aggregate team power rankings we did in the first article in this series, the rankings are mainly what you would expect with a few outliers.

Seeing Indianapolis as highest ranked team is not a surprise. Their top three fantasy point earners, Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai, are all immensely capable of putting up huge numbers. What helps their case out more is their depth. They have nine ranked players, an accomplishment only the Cowboys could match. Which put “America’s Team” in the number two slot.

Minnesota, Green Bay and New Orleans round out the top five. Although I’m not surprised at the top five teams, I am surprised at the order. Coming off a Super Bowl win, and stocked with talent, New Orleans’ 5th place ranking and -139 point differential to Indianapolis is surprising. Compared with our aggregate team power rankings, where New Orleans was ranked #1, and we have our first significant discrepancy in our two ranking systems. I tend to side with the individual rankings, and think New Orleans is much more likely to be the fifth best team, and not the best team.

When placed side-by-side, the aggregate team rankings we derived from looking at expert predictions is fairly similar to the individual fantasy football player rankings. However, there are four significant discrepancies besides the Saints.

Houston Texans: 14 - Team Ranking / 7 – Individual Ranking
Led by the power trio of Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub and Arian Foster, the Texans score in the top 10 of the individual rankings while being mid-pack filler in the team rankings. In this instance, I side with the team ranking. The team was built for fantasy football. Not reality football. If they are available in the fourth round, I’ll take them. Other than that, pass.

Da Bears: 10 – Team Ranking / 23 – Individual Ranking
My hometown Bears are responsible for the biggest point spread between our two ranking systems. And it’s not really a surprise. Playing in a division with the Pack and Vikes has most experts pegging them for a .500 record. And in this case, the individuals are greater than the sum of the parts. Cutler, Forte, Johnny Knox and Aromashodu all have the potential to put up individual fantasy points, but in a team-based game, I’ll leave the Bears for the waiver wire.

Baltimore Ravens: 5 – Team Ranking / 12 – Individual Ranking
The Ravens exemplify the strength of a team versus individual glory. Most experts, including Vegas, love the Ravens, while fantasy players are unimpressed with their point earning ability. In my team-based league though, they are allstars, and definitely worth a high second-round pick.

New England Patriots: 7 – Team Ranking / 15 – Individual Ranking
Similar to the Ravens, the Patriots have always won as a team, despite a roster with some pretty big stars. I expect the Pats to perform much more closely to their team ranking, not their individual ranking. I’ll take them tail end of second round if they are still on the board.

Having played these games for 10 years now I’m often asked about draft strategy in a franchise fantasy league vs typical player fantasy leagues.  Do you want to draft teams from the same Division?  Conference?  They say defense wins championships…but does defense win your FFS league?  All these are great questions – so let’s answer them!

Do you want to draft teams from the same division?
Absolutely…but not more than 2 teams in the same division.  The pessimist says drafting 2 teams from the same division guarantees you of 2 losses.  That’s true.  But doesn’t it also guarantee you of 2 wins?  Well, TECHNICALLY neither statement is true because theoretically you could have the teams tie.  This would be the ultimate screw job in your FFS league because you get 0 points for ties.  So in a game where your 2 teams are playing you are thinking “Well I’ll definitely get 1 point here” there is actually about a .000001% chance of you getting zero points.  If that happens you might want to stay away from black cats, broken mirrors, and please stop walking under ladders because you are just flat out bad luck!

The other advantage that many people don’t think of when drafting 2 teams from the same division is that it mathematically increases your chance of having a playoff team since all division winners get in.  If you own 50% of the division teams that’s better than 25%, right?  Even if one of them is the Rams or Lions….nobody thought the Dolphins would win the AFC East the year after the Patriots went 16-0 but lost the Super Bowl.

Do you want to draft teams from the same conference?
Using the logic from my “Drafting from the Same Division” post a couple of days ago you might say yes.  Drafting from the same division by definition also means you are drafting from the same conference.  So essentially you have to take into consideration all the benefits of drafting in the same division…i.e. better chance of having a playoff team by owning 2 teams from the division knowing that at least 1 team from each division goes to the playoffs.

But let’s take all this a little further.  Having 4 teams in the NFC means you have a much better chance of drafting a representative in the Super Bowl than if you were to draft 3 in the NFC and 1 in the AFC.  You might be thinking, “well if I own 1 in the AFC doesn’t that increase my odds in that conference off-setting what I lose by not having all teams in the same conference?”  The answer is “well, kinda.”  You see if the 4th team you pick is in the other conference but it’s a team that you don’t, in a million years, see making it to the playoffs much less the Super Bowl you might want to draft another team from the conference in which you already have 3 teams (assuming you have an equal team in that conference in mind).  Here’s why: If all along you think the NFC is the stronger conference then going heavy in that conference theoretically gives you a better chance of having the Super Bowl winner because you already kinda think the NFC has better teams anyway.  Essentially, you already know the NFC will win the Super Bowl so why not heavy up there?

They say defense wins championships…but does defense win your FFS league?
Not necessarily.  The saying seems to be tried and true.  But to me this merely means that if the defense for a particular team happens to play lights out at the right time that’s all they need.  Look at last year’s Saints.  Not a great defense (certainly and opportunistic defense, but not ‘85 Bears great).  That said they shut down Peyton Manning in the 2nd half last year…bottom line, defense played lights out at the right time and suddenly everyone talks about black and gold confetti falling on Drew Brees’ cute kid instead of celebrating another Manning Super Bowl win.  How does this relate to your FFS draft?  Don’t let offense or defense sway you – go with the team you’d rather watch all year long regardless of whether one is known for their defense.  Besides, in FFS you own 4 franchises so you are gonna want some wins out of those teams too and just because you don’t have the Super Bowl winner doesn’t mean you’re not finishing in the money which is the beauty of Franchise Fantasy Football.

Everyone is an expert. Former players. Former coaches. And in today’s fantasy football-crazed world, even the heavy-set guy with a stained Jets jersey can solicit airtime on ESPN and proffer an opinion.

But how good are these opinions, and should you use them as the basis of you team-based fantasy football league strategy? According to a January 2010 article on Kottke.org that analyzed seven media “team power rankings” before the 2009 season, most expert predictions and rankings are pretty much the same, with the exception of two to three over-valued and under-valued teams. Finding and selecting or avoiding these teams is the fine line between league success and failure.

2010 Power Rankings
So keeping in mind that the experts mainly get it right, but always under/over value a handful of teams, it’s our goal to look at an aggregate of three power rankings from ESPN, Sports illustrated and CBS Sports, and determine the handful of over/under-valued teams. To accomplish this, we assigned each team a number based on its individual power ranking from the three media outlets, and then added those together for a combined score. The lowest number equaled the best team. Here’s how our aggregate data panned out.

1. New Orleans
2. Indianapolis
3. Minnesota
4. Dallas
T5. Baltimore
T5. Green Bay
7. New England
8. San Diego
9. Cincinnati
10. New York Jet
11. Atlanta
12. Philadelphia
13. Miami
T14. Pittsburgh
T14. New York Giants
T14. Houston
T14. Arizona
18. San Francisco
19. Tennessee
20. Washington
21. Denver
22. Carolina
23. Chicago
24. Jacksonville
25. Oakland
26. Seattle
27. Kansas City
28. Detroit
29. Cleveland
30. Tampa Bay
31. Buffalo
32. St. Louis

Seeing New Orleans and Indianapolis as the first and second ranked teams is not surprising, as “experts” tend to put the two Super Bowl teams at the top of the list. However, in 2009, both the Giants and Patriots underperformed after contesting the Superbowl in 2008. Will New Orleans or Indianapolis underperform?

I say it’s a solid yes that at least one of the teams will. And I would never bet against the Colts to turn in a sub-par season, and actually picked them first in my draft. But the Saints I am much more down on, despite all the experts predicting them to be either the first or second ranked team.

So I’ve got the Saints marked in my draft as an over-valued team, and despite the experts tapping them for repeat success, I am playing what I think is the safer bet with my first round pick.

Over/Under Values
To determine the other over/under-valued teams based on expert predictions, I look for anomalies in the side-by-side power rankings comparisons. I’m not worried about the bottom half of the rankings, as these teams will go undrafted. That leaves me with four teams to target:

1. Baltimore: 5 / 2 / 11 (T5)
2. San Diego: 10 / 11 / 3 (8)
3. Cincinnati: 11 / 6 / 10 (9)
4. Philadelphia: 17 / 9 / 9 (12)

The numbers indicate power rankings for ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports and the aggregate overall rankings of these three teams.

The first two teams (Baltimore and San Diego) are the biggest head scratchers for my draft. I love Baltimore’s team this season, as do most of the experts. However, CBS Sports has ranked them 11, a far cry from SI’s number two ranking. In my 4 team / 4 round draft, that puts their value between the first and third rounds, which is quite a disparity in a 4-round draft. Most likely, Baltimore will make or break someone’s season this year.

San Diego’s power rankings also post more questions than answers, because once again, one of the experts have pegged them for immense success while the other two experts point to a decent, but not overly positive season. Again, CBS Sports tends to be the outlier, as a third spot ranking is way over-valued when compared to ESPN and SI’s tenth and eleventh place ranking. And also again, their expected draft slot spans three rounds in a 4-round draft, making them a team that could either be taken with one of the first picks or fall all the way to the fourth round. My strategy is to hope someone in my league overvalues them in the first or second round, and stay away from them unless they fall to the fourth round.

With the pickup of TO, it’s undeniable that Cincy has a cast of characters, but will all that flash lead to wins? Last year, the Bengals were terribly underrated by most experts, and turned in an impressive season of 10 wins and 10 points for a team-based league. Not bad for a team probably left to the waiver wire for most leagues. But can they repeat that success. I say yes. They can turn in another 10-6 winning season, but I’m banking on many of the franchise owners in my league to over-value the TO pickup and waste a pick in the first round on a team that I think is likely to peak at 10 points with no playoff victories. My strategy is to pray someone in my league overvalues OchoCinco’s twittering and it equates it to a first or early second round pick.

The final team on my “watch” list is Philadelphia. 11 wins last year, but they have lost a quarterback that has become synomous with the team. And what to make of Kevin Kolb. Two great games as a backup quarterback does not equal success over the course of a whole season. I think Philly underperforms this year, and despite SI and CBS Sports giving them a top ten ranking, I am siding with ESPN at 17 and keeping them off my draft board unless they fall to me as the final pick.

Playing the Odds
After looking at the aggregate rankings of the expert power rankings for 2010, I turned to one more source to round out my draft strategy: Vegas Baby! Looking at the over/under on regular season wins for the 2010 season, according to VegasInsider.com, and you get these top 16 teams.

San Diego (11)
Indianapolis (11)
New Orleans (10.5)
Dallas (10)
Baltimore (9.5)
Green Bay (9.5)
New England (9.5)
Minnesota (9.5)
N.Y. Jets (9.5)
Pittsburgh (9)
Atlanta (9)
Miami (8.5)
San Francisco (8.5)
New York Giants (8.5)
Philadelphia (8)
Washington (8)

Since Vegas has built a city on being successful, it’s interesting to see what a 4 team / 4 round draft would look like of all players banked on Vegas.

Player One: San Diego, Minnesota, N.Y. Jets, Washington
Player Two: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia
Player Three: New Orleans, Green Bay, Atlanta, N.Y. Giants
Player Four: Dallas, Baltimore, Miami, San Francisco

If I’m player two, I’m loving my first three picks. Three consistent winners that are capable of 10 wins and post-season victories. Whereas player one has a lot of teams with major question marks.

So who do you listen to? The media experts, Vegas, or your gut? My draft strategy is a combination of all. For the first round, I weigh heavily on what the experts say, and make a conservative pick based on a top four aggregate team I know will always get me at least 10 wins. The second round, I go with the expert aggregate and pick whoever falls to me that has the highest ranking. For the third and fourth rounds, I go completely by gut and try to pick an undervalued team.

Sign up for your team-based fantasy football league at www.franchisefantasysports.com

One week before draft day and I spill my gut feelings onto scratch paper. Not bad, but I start to notice a few gaping holes. Mainly, all of my “sleeper” teams have been hyped by every talking head on television for the last 48 hours. There is no way the Ravens are falling to the third round. This is what I call the “reality phase” of my drafting process.

Three days before draft day and panic has set in. I print out team power rankings from all my favorite fantasy sources and am shocked to find I’m not on the same page with the “experts.” How the hell does CBS Sports rank the San Diego Chargers third, while ESPN and Sports Illustrated have them ranked a more sensible 10th and 11th, respectively. Are the Charges a boon or a bust? Which is it going to be? This is what I call the “Favre phase” of my drafting process, where I really don’t know what I’m going to do

One day before the draft and I’m oddly confident again. Maybe I overestimated the franchise owners in my league. Maybe they won’t see what a steal the Raiders will be in the fourth round. This is what I call the “TO phase” of my drafting process. Simply put, I think I’m better than I really am.

Four hours before the draft, and a calm has ensued. I come to grips, like I do every year, that I’m filler for my franchise football league. Never vying for the win, but also never writing big checks to the winner.

But that’s not really the point of my franchise football league. It’s all about the process and the game. I love team-based leagues because I actually enjoy watching the games. I forget about following yardage, sacks and interceptions, and instead focus on what really matters: wins and losses. It’s the essence of any sport, and a great way to actually enjoy watching football.

This year’s draft was a little different for my Franchise Fantasy Sports League. We’ve made some great improvements to our team-based fantasy football draft, and to celebrate the launch of our Facebook page (www.facebook.com/franchisefantasysports), we held our draft interactively through one long comment string. Be sure to check out the draft comments, as it was quite the spectacle.

I got the first pick, and it was a no-brainer for me to go with the Colts. Since I had the first pick in our six-person league with a snake-style draft, I knew it would be a while before I was on the clock again. I was extremely happy at the end of the first round and the first pick of the second round, because I had three teams on my board that were yet to be picked: the Ravens, Patriots and Chargers. I was confident at least one of those teams would fall to me, but alas, they went in quick succession right before I had to make my next two picks.

I panicked and went with the Dolphins and Giants. Not only was I not confident in these picks, but I can’t stand the teams. I had immediate buyer’s remorse. The Vikings, Steelers and Bengals were still on the board. I would have been happier with any combination of those two.

By the fourth and final round, I was looking for a blue-light special and was confident the Raiders would go undrafted and I would lock them up with the final pick of the draft. But they went two picks before me, and I settled on the Titans.

In the end, I have a team (Colts, Dolphins, Giants and Titans) that I have a feeling will put me where I always seem to be: middle of the pack. I guess dessert will be on me at our annual post-season “make good” dinner.

We’re often asked “With this whole ‘team only’ fantasy football concept, how do hard-core fantasy fans get into this game?”  We love this question because seeing the die hard fantasy player start to get into it is truly one of the great joys of being at FFS.

All it takes is for them to try a league once with a group of similarly experienced fantasy players.  Most fantasy leagues are comprised of 10-15 people but Franchise Fantasy needs to be played in smaller groups of 2-8 (and preferably 4-7 for hardcore fantasy players).  This is actually a good thing because the Commissioners of regular fantasy leagues will undoubtedly have some of their players say “Naw, a team only thing doesn’t sound like fun to me” meaning the Commissioner of a 12 man regular fantasy league gets just 6 of his people to try this weird Franchise Fantasy thing.  The good news is, that’s absolutely perfect…..and on the off chance all 12 people want in, they can set up 2 leagues or have people pair up.

Those that play get hooked almost immediately because they realize Franchise Fantasy Sports can be an incredible strategy challenge too.  Everyone gets 4 NFL teams and as long as there are less than 8 players that will leave some teams in the free agent pool to be considered later in the season.  There are surprises in the NFL each year and each week throughout the year.  You can be certain that if there are some teams left on the waiver wire some of those teams will have a winning record a few weeks into the season.  The fantasy players love this because it gives them a reason to consider picking up one of these surprise teams and aligning their rooting interests with that team. 

This brings up another huge benefit to playing Franchise Fantasy games.  Your rooting interests are perfectly in line with those of the team – to simply win games (enter Herm Edwards quote “Hello!!!  You play to win the game!”).  You see in the typical fantasy game your QB, RB, and place kicker could have a bad day and you lose.  But all of those position players in your FRANCHISE league could have a bad day and your NY Jets still win the game 9-7 on an awesome defensive effort. 

And finally, every regular fantasy player has been in the situation of hoping for their position player to perform well on the field but not caring one bit if that player’s team wins (and in some cases rooting against that team).  That’s not the case in franchise fantasy football.  You are always cheering for your team to win.  In the end that’s all you want regardless of each of that team’s individual player performance.  This is the essence of team sports – just win baby!